Русская версияGeorgia's President Mikheil Saakashvili has lost.
In the shadow of
the Olympic Games, he wanted to regain control of the separatist
region of South Ossetia after more than 15 years.
Bildunterschrift:
Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift:
Ingo Mannteufel
He didn't just fail miserably, rather he's suffered a major defeat
because he wasn't able to keep his election campaign promise to
reestablish Georgia's territorial integrity. This will give his
political opponents impetus.
Russian troops have secured the separatist regimes in both South
Ossetia and Abkhazia and it is highly unlikely that Georgia will be
able to negotiate the return of these regions in the near future.
In addition, Saakashvili has emerged as a military gambler, pushing
Georgia further away from the possibility of NATO membership.
Brussels , Washington
caught by surprise
The US and the EU have also lost. Saakashvili's military adventures
caught the governments in Washington and Europe fully unprepared.
It could be that they didn't really understand at first what
Georgia was doing in the South Ossetian region.
In any case, the western governments took a long time to recognize
the seriousness of the situation. It's not enough to make naive
calls for peace. They didn't instigate an intervention mission or
call for emergency talks in time.
The crisis in South Ossetian revealed the European Union's internal
conflict over its dealings with its eastern neighbors, particularly
with Russia. It lacks a real strategy for the European East.
Russia
reveals its weaknesses
But Russia has also lost in this conflict. It demonstrated the
weaknesses of the Medvedev-Putin co-democracy. While President
Dmitry Medvedev clearly had a hard time filling the shoes of the
Russian commander-in-chief, his predecessor Vladimir Putin, now
prime minister, virtually took over the leadership role in the
country.
What's more, the improvements Medvedev had achieved in relations
with the West during his nearly 100 days in office have all but
vanished. Russia's harsh and relentless military reaction in the
South Ossetian conflict will only heighten the West's concerns.
The West doesn't share the self-righteousness with which Moscow
defended its invasion in Georgia as humanitarian intervention. It
may be viewed differently in Russia, but from the European
perspective Moscow has shown itself as aggressive and
uncooperative.
The alienation of the West and the deterioration of relations are
pre-programmed. And while Georgia's NATO membership has become more
unlikely, Ukraine moved a step closer to the alliance over the
weekend. For Moscow, that's not a good sign.
Finally, the biggest losers in this bloody conflict cannot be
forgotten: the victims of the war on both sides, those who have
been killed, their relatives, the refugees and the survivors who
are now standing before the ruins of what used to be their homes.
Ingo Mannteufel heads Deutsche Welle's radio and online Russian
departments. (kjb)
(Deutsche Welle)
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