Русская версияDW-TV: Why did this conflict escalate?
There has clearly been an escalation in Georgia.
The Russians might
even have attempted to provoke some kind of military overthrow of
the government in Tbilisi. Possibly, Saakaschwili's government felt
obligated to intervene -- it's very complicated and it's not easy
to grasp what's happening. What is clear is that both sides wanted
to avoid military deployments, but that's not how the situation
developed. And now we're facing the risk that Russia takes
the opportunity to position troops in Georgia on the grounds that
it needs to protect the Russian population in Abkhazia and South
Ossetia. What needs to happen now is that they return to their
original position and stop jeopardizing the Georgians' room for
maneuver in the Georgian heartland.
Other European countries -- such as the Ukraine and the Baltic
states -- are afraid of Moscow's muscle. Are these fears justified?
Bildunterschrift:
Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift:
The Baltic states are worried they might get the same treatment as
Georgia
The fear that Russia will defend its interests aggressively and
perhaps start to test the resilience of, for example, NATO's
solidarity with the Baltic states ort he Ukraine's western ties, is
a justified one. But the situation is unlikely to develop in the
same way as it did in Georgia, with an intervention of Russian
troops. However, we shouldn't forget that the Ukraine is home to
one of Russia important Black Sea Fleet bases. Part of its
population also has Russian passports and pro-Russian sympathies.
So a similar conflict is possible. As for the Baltic states: in
these cases I would be more inclined to expect Russia to gain
influence with a cyber-war and infiltration, before it resorted to
military intervention.
The EU urged Russia not to recognize the independence of South
Ossetia and Abkhazia. Moscow ignored the warnings, and not for the
first time. What political options does the EU have in its dealings
with Russia?
We shouldn't expect some miracle cure able to make Russia change
its foreign policy. We have to think ahead. That involves reminding
Russia that it is in its own interests to maintain economic
cooperation with the EU. It involves ensuring that the
stabilization process in the post-Soviet regions -- politically,
legally, and economically goes ahead, led and supported by the EU.
Brussels should not allow itself to be thrown off track. This
process must go on, and the EU must insist it does.
What do you think EU-Russian relations will look like in four
months time?
I would expect relations to remain difficult, because it will be
necessary for both sides to take a few steps and review whether or
not they still want a partnership in the first place.
(Deutsche Welle)
more info >>
<< Back