Русская версияWith the United States taking a diplomatic back seat on the crisis
and the swift reaction by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, acting
as EU president, Monday's summit has become the union's first
opportunity to broker a solution to a major international conflict
on its own.
But the opportunity is mined with potential pitfalls and risks, not
least of which is the traditional EU dilemma of getting a group of
27 nations to agree on a common policy.
And because the policy
involves Russia, the potential for disagreement is enormous.
According to a French government source, success will depend on
Sarkozy's ability to negotiate and, especially, on the ability of
the union to speak with one voice.
The emergency summit is the first such meeting called since the
2003 Iraq war. But French officials say that what is at stake today
"is more important (than Iraq): it is our neighborhood."
Its aims will be to show support for Georgia, in the form of
humanitarian and financial aid, and to force Russia to implement,
"completely and without fail," the six-point agreement brokered by
Sarkozy earlier this month.
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Russia's full withdrawal is a condition of the EU's plan
This includes the immediate removal of Russian checkpoints on
Georgian territory and the retreat of Russian forces to
pre-conflict positions and allowing the deployment of perhaps
hundreds of international observers, under the aegis of the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).
In addition, France insists that Russia agree to point six of the
accord, international discussions on the modalities of security and
stability of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
If Moscow does not fully implement the accord, one French official
told the DPA news agency, European relations with Russia will be
"under observation."
External and internal relations on a knife edge
All this must be accomplished without doing permanent damage to the
relationship between the EU and Russia and without letting
bloc-internal rifts on the issue sabotage a common position.
This delicate balancing act is being complicated by the possibility
that several EU members may demand that the union impose sanctions
against Moscow -- a step other EU nations are not ready to take.
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Many of Russia's neighbors have energy concerns
A source in Paris said Friday that "the time for sanctions has not
come," and noted that the countries that may demand radical action
on Monday, such as Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, are those
most dependent on Russian gas supplies.
"We are telling these countries, 'Think of the Russian reply to
sanctions,'" a reference to Moscow's penchant for squeezing gas
supplies to underline its political agenda during the winter.
Divided leaders could lead to divided opinions
Another complication is the fact that a number of countries will be
represented at Monday's summit by two leaders each of whom will
represent different policies.
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Tusk, right, and Kaczynski don't see eye to eye
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk can be relied on to toe the EU
line, while Polish President Lech Kaczynski has said that the
Polish and Baltic stance at the summit "won't be completely
radical, but radical enough."
In addition, Czech President Vaclav Klaus will be accompanying
Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek to Brussels, and both men have
widely diverging opinions on the issue. It remains to be seen which
of these leaders will speak for his country.
The summit also takes place under the looming threat of other
crises in the region.
French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner has warned that, after
Georgia, "there will be other aims that one could conceive of being
the objectives of Russia, particularly Crimea, Ukraine and
Moldavia."
The next chapter in what looks to be a long diplomatic story will
take place on Nov. 14, when Russian leaders meet with their EU
counterparts in Nice. That is also, a French official said, a kind
of unofficial deadline for Moscow to put the six-point plan into
effect.
In Paris, this is viewed as being "of absolutely crucial
importance."
(Deutsche Welle)
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